Multi-week model survey (8-28 days)

The rain event moving across Australia looks to favour the channel country, central and southern NSW areas. All areas look like they’ll get something with the arrival of some La Niña moisture, at last.

Model form: the BOM multi-week model seems out of step with lots of blue/green ink over eastern Australia. Those that have followed this model closely will know how dreadfully out of form it is this winter cropping season. Its unusual to see a wet signal in the IRI model, with a normally very cautious mount. The NCEP 16-day model has been the form horse of late and its not too excited about the next two-and-a-bit weeks, unless you’re in the channel country.

Multi-week model survey (8-28 days)

With the SAM in negative phase, it seems plausible that southern areas are the only ones likely to use gumboots and umbrellas this coming fortnight. Models seem more excited generally from around the 12-30 Oct, so looks like a dry period for most areas until then.

Model form: the BOM multi-week model seems out of step with lots of green ink over eastern Australia. Those that have followed this model closely will know how dreadfully out of form it is, and a poor showing here could see a visit to the knackery. The IRI model is showing dry although due for refresh today, while the JMA has done a u-turn from a week ago, hosing down its wet 4-week forecast to now align with a mid-month rain event. Whilst often criticised, the NCEP 16-day model has been the form horse of late and its not too excited about the next two-and-a-bit weeks unless you’re down on the Murray River.