A survey of 12 international models condensed in the below charts (top both and bottom LHS) shows the outlook for winter rain sitting in the mid-tercile range for the BOM and other EU multi-system, whereas the IRI North American ensemble is more bullish on higher precipitation. Temperature predictions (bottom RHS) show a similar theme with no signal for cooler or warmer conditions. This is not unusual given most indicators are quite close to neutral. The longer-range charts do favour a wet Indian Ocean Dipole developing along with a wet Modoki phase, influencing our spring. SST predictions also favour warm waters through the Arafura Sea and Ningaloo Reef which could well be flowing through model outputs for the mid-latitudes.

See bottom chart for the IRIs refreshed early spring outlook!

Order of Figures clockwise from top left: ACCESS-S tercile forecast, CS3 multi-model tercile (ECMWF, UK, France, Italy, US, Japan), 5x North American models combined on the bottom showing rainfall (LHS) and temperature (RHS). IRIs extended outlook at the bottom.