The chart below shows a pulse of the MJO strengthening in Phases 8 and 1 out in the Western Indian Ocean. The bottom chart shows the average conditions in those phases historically bringing dry weather. However, phases 4 and 5 look much more encouraging this time of year, so the MJO will be worth keeping an eye on.

The Madden – Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a tropical disturbance that moves eastward around the global tropics every 30-60 days and has proven to influence rainfall and temperature conditions. The strength of the MJO may increase or decrease as it progresses eastwards, affecting the level of convection and influence on both precipitation and temperature. The diagram below is used by scientists to track the path of the MJO showing predicted dates through various phases (see December MJO explainer). A short YouTube cartoon explaining the MJO can be found here